Small Craft Advisory 579, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT SAT JUL 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...NAM/GFS SYNOPTIC INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND REASONABLE.

WEAK OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE REMAINS RELATIVELY
PERSISTENT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA/BRISTOL BAY THROUGH TUE.

.EAST...STRATUS OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY IS SLOW IN BREAKING UP
WITH GENERALLY STAGNANT FLOW PATTERN. EXPECT LACK OF HIGHER CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW LOWER CLOUDS TO BURN OFF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE SOME
SUNSHINE AND COASTAL SEABREEZES. EXPECT SAME GENERAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE
SUN AS LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG FORM ONCE AGAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH SUN WITH THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN. EXPECT SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE
SUSITINA VALLEY...MORE SO IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THERMAL TROUGH
INTENSIFIES EARLY NEXT WEAK...SO CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND
DIURNAL GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE SOME.

.WEST...STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE GENERAL RULE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA/BRISTOL BAY.
INLAND AND COASTAL AREAS OF SW ALASKA WILL SEE SOME BREAKS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH SUN
WILL SKIRT KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...HOWEVER STABILITY INDICES AT THIS TIME
WOULD ONLY SUPPORT SHOWERS.  LARGE LOW MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SUN NIGHT/MONDAY WILL BRING MINIMUM GALE CONDITIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JUL 06