Small Craft Advisory 455, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM ADT WED MAY 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...MODEL SYNOPTIC INITIALIZATIONS REASONABLE. FORECAST
TRENDS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 HOURS. OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS LIKE
BEST CHOICE THIS RUN.

.EAST...WEAK AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS
PRODUCING CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL.
CLOUD BREAKS OVER THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TODAY. N/S PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
ALSO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER COPPER RIVER AND
PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. SHOWERS OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THR NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS AND MOVES TO OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
FRI AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LOW MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY FRI
NIGHT/SAT WILL BRING WIND AND RAIN TO SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF.

WEST...NORTHERN BERING SEA CENTER MOVES NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
ANADYR AND WEAKENS. RIDGE BUILDS OVER BRISTOL BAY/SW ALASKA THU
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING NPAC SYSTEM. EXPECT THIS CENTER
MOVES TO SOUTH OF ADAK THU NIGHT WITH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER 980S.
CENTER WILL WEAKEN FRI AND SHIFT EAST AS TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPS AND
MOVES NORTH OF THE CHAIN. TRIPLE POINT CENTER BECOMES THE DOMINATE
CENTER BY THU EVENING AND MOVES TO OVER BRISTOL BAY IN THE 990S SAT
MORNING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 175 AND 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAY 06