Small Craft Advisory 413, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK. UKMET MODEL INITIALIZED BEST ON DUAL CENTERS SOUTH OF THE GULF
AND SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. UKMET/GFS FORECAST TREND LOOK THE
BEST.

.EAST...LOW COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE GULF MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF
TONIGHT/THU WITH MAIN CENTER MOVING INLAND ALONG THE GULF COAST THU
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND...NORTH GULF MOVES
INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL/COPPER RIVER EARLY FRIDAY AND WEAKENS. RAINS
ALREADY OVER KODIAK AND QUICKLY APPROACHING THE GULF COAST WILL
SPREAD TO INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL/COPPER RIVER(SNOW AND RAIN) TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK UP INTO SHOWERS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRISK
EAST WINDS ADVANCE OF FRONT WILL SPREAD TO THE NORTH GULF TONIGHT AND
WEAKEN THU MORNING. GAP WINDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAK TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING THU. DEVELOPING
LOW INTO BRISTOL BAY AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THU NIGHT/FRI AND ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIPITATION.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH HOLDS OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO
EXPECT UNSTABLE AIR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO PREVAIL.

.WEST...
OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND WILL BRING A SHOT AT RAIN
AND SNOW TO BRISTOL BAY AND PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT
AND THU. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
SHEMYA THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER FLOW SHOULD CARRY THIS CENTER EVENTUALLY
EAST AND WEAKEN IT. UPPER JET ELONGATES FRONT AND SPAWNS SECONDARY
CENTER ALONG FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH DEVELOPS AT THE EXPENSE OF FIRST
CENTER. THIS CENTER DEVELOPS SOUTH OF ADAK TONIGHT AND MOVES TO
BRISTOL BAY FRI MORNING. CENTER WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND SW AK FRI
AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CENTER WILL BE ON
NORTH AND WEST QUADS. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT SPREADS RAIN TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND TO BRISTOL BAY THU. BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MAINLAND WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 176. GALES 120 130 132 138 172 AND 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAY 06