Small Craft Advisory 387, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED APR 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THU MORNING SO WILL GO
WITH A BLEND THROUGH THEN. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOWS A DEVELOPING
SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. UKMET WANTS TO KEEP IT MUCH FARTHER
SOUTHWEST THAN GFS AND DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW OVER ANCHORAGE. GFS
WANTS TO MOVE THE LOW TOWARD CORDOVA. THE COLD AIR ENTRENCHED OVER
THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WILL PROBABLY KEEP ANY LOWS FROM
PRESSING INLAND TO WARM THINGS UP. THEREFORE WE BELIEVE THAT BY THU
NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO SEWARD THAN CORDOVA OR
KODIAK.

OUT WEST..CURRENTLY A DEEP LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. THERE IS STRONG
CAA ON THE BACKSIDE THAT WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS LEADING TO CONTINUED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH AFTERNOON. A
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING TODAY.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS
EVENING. GFS WANTS TO MOVE A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS FRI. HOWEVER THIS IS PROBABLY A LITTLE FAST. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO MOVE IN SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND.

MAINLAND AND KODIAK..AS THE LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS MOVES EAST IT WILL
BRING MORE SHOWERS OVER KODIAK AND BRISTOL BAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW
DOMINATING. RADAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND LOWER SUSITNA VALLEY. EXPECT THESE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TODAY..DROP OFF BRIEFLY TONIGHT AS THE NEW LOW DEVELOPS AND
THEN RETURN AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN
ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI TONIGHT AND THU.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 185.
MARINE...GALES 155 165 170 171 172 179.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RW APR 06