Small Craft Advisory 376, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SUN APR 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODEL ARE VERY SIMILAR THIS MORNING. THE GSF HAS BETTER
INITIALIZATION AND IS DEEPENING THE SYSTEMS MORE THAN THE ETA MODEL.
THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SO
IT IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY.

UPPER AIR...
THE MAIN UPPER LOW THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN BERING TO JUST NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...
A MODERATE LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY MONDAY MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND INTO CENTRAL
ALASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW OVER THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND DEEPEN TO 996 MB 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE TO 340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WEATHER...
AT 11 AM...THE MIDDLETON RADAR SHOWED PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE
CORDOVA ZONE AND IT WAS APPROACHING THE VALDEZ ZONE FROM THE EAST.
THIS SEEMS TO FIT WELL WITH THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN OF THE
MESO-ETA. SNOW WAS ALSO REPORTED AT MCCARTHY THIS MORNING. RAIN AND
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TODAY AND
INTO EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA, ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA
VALLEYS TONIGHT. SNOW OVER THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REST OF THE ZONE BY THIS EVENING.

SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PRIBILOFS
MONDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120, 125, 172, 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM APR 06