Small Craft Advisory 367, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 220421 AAA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
820 PM ADT FRI APR 21 2006

UPDATED ZONES 130 132 AND 140

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-221400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A FRONT EXTENDING FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SOUTHWARD WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY. A 1010 MB LOW DEVELOPS FRI NIGHT 400 NM SOUTH OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND AND STRENGTHENS TO 996 MB SUN AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
TO 100 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND.

$$

PKZ120-221400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT FRI APR 21 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE. SEAS 
14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE. SEAS
13 FT EXCEPT 6 FT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE.
SEAS 17 FT EXCEPT 8 FT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-221400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT FRI APR 21 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-221400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT FRI APR 21 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDING 
TO 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 30 KT OUT OF EASTERN BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-221400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT FRI APR 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-221400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
820 PM ADT FRI APR 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT EXCEPT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND
20 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-221400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
820 PM ADT FRI APR 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-221400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT FRI APR 21 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-221400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
820 PM ADT FRI APR 21 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-221400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT FRI APR 21 2006

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM ADT FRI APR 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - MAJOR UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING
WITH -36C AT 500 MB CORE. THIS SUPPORTS A 994 MB SFC LOW IN BRISTOL
BAY AND THE OLD PARENT CENTER 992 MB JUST EAST OF ATKA AT 18Z. A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE COPPER BASIN THROUGH 140W THIS MORNING WITH
500 MB TEMPS AROUND -31C ON THE PANC RAOB. A FRAGMENTED SOMEWHAT
MERIDIONAL JET AT 250 MB PERSISTS FROM CENTRAL ASIA TO AN EXIT AROUND
35N 145W AT THE BASE OF A MAJOR UPPER TROF. ONE BRANCH IS DIGGING AT
125 KT NW TO SE BELOW THE ALEUTIANS. THIS IS ENABLING ANOTHER BRANCH
TO DEVELOP AS A SOUTHWESTERLY AIMED AT THE PANHANDLE.

AER FORECASTS - THE CHALLENGE REMAINS FOR WHEN WHERE AND WHAT TYPE
PRECIP OVER THROUGH SAT MORNING. THE SAFE BET IS TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW
FOR ALL WINDWARD SLOPES WITH SOME SPILL-OVER AS PER AK-ETA-12 QPF.
WINTER SIMPLY WONT GO AWAY. BY 12Z SAT THICKNESS DROPS AGAIN BELOW
THE SNOW VALUE AND -36C ALOFT MOVES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL BY 00Z SUN.
THIS MEANS MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE SHOWERS AND IF YOU ARE UNDER ONE IT
WILL BE WITH DARK LOOKING VIRGA AND SNOWFLAKES. UNDER SOME SOLAR
HEATING LATE SAT AND INTO THE WEEK EXPECT TCU AND EVEN CBS. A GLANCE
AT MID-NEXT WEEK SHOWS THE MAIN LOWS REMAINING SOUTH OF THE GULF
WHICH MEANS COOLER TEMPS AND NOT MUCH PRECIP.

ALU FORECASTS - THE WESTERN LOWS CONSOLIDATE AS PER ALL MODEL RUNS
WITHIN 100 NM OF PACD BY 18Z SAT. THIS SETS UP A BAND OF NORTHERLIES
OVER THE CENTRAL BARING SEA BUT RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALONG THE SW
COAST. A RIDGE WILL BUILD TONIGHT OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA
AGAIN AS PER ALL MODELS. HARD TO ARGUE FOR MUCH UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION OVER THE MAINLAND AREAS ON SAT BUT IT SEEMS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ALOFT TO MENTION SNOW SHOWERS. DONT LOOK FOR THE DAFFODILS OR TULIPS
YET. THICKNESS VALUES FOR ALU REMAIN REALLY LOW INTO WED AS PER THE
GFS-190.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 172 175 176. HVY FRZ SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC APR 06