Small Craft Advisory 337, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT THU APR 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...ALASKA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND
THE TROUGH CONNECTS WITH A CUT OFF LOW THAT FORMED YESTERDAY EVENING
AND IS PRESENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE BERING SEA FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF KAMCHATKA ON SATURDAY DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE A 978 MB LOW IS SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AND DRIFTING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THIS LOW A NEW LOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY
SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH ALASKA
PENINSULA INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THESE AREAS
UNTIL THEN.

THE STANDARD NUMERICAL PREDICTION MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
TODAY. MODELS ARE EXTREMELY SIMILAR IN THE EAST ON THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE MAIN LOW AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SECONDARY
LOW SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT FRIDAY. IN THE WEST JUST SMALL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA THIS WEEKEND. THESE
MINOR DIFFERENCE SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST FOR
THE WEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 138 155 160 165 170 172.
         STORM 132 150.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 165 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ APR 06