Small Craft Advisory 332, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT WED APR 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA WILL BE
PUSHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA OVERNIGHT.
THIS LATE SEASON PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL INTENSIFY A LOW MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT. THE ORIGINAL SURFACE LOW OVER THE
BRISTOL BAY ZONE WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF INTENSIFIES.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
OVER THE KODIAK AREAS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SNOW THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN BRISTOL
BAY AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL TURN TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES EASTWARD.
RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MAT-SU
AREA WILL BE TONIGHT BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OF THESE
AREAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. BIG REASON WHY THERE MAY NOT BE ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS COMES FROM THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS BECOMING A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA. THIS
USUALLY CAUSES PRECIPITATION NOT TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS OVERNIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AREA WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW AND RESULTANT DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW NEAR
MIDDLETON ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST.
IN THE WEST THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE A BETTER SOLUTION WITH A WEAK LOW
SKIRTING NORTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND DISSIPATING NEAR DUTCH
HARBOR THURSDAY NIGHT. UKMET ALSO CARRIES THIS FEATURE BUT THE NAM
DOES NOT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 132 138 155 160 165 180 170 171 175 176.
         STORM 150.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 06