Small Craft Advisory 308, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT WED APR 5 2006

CORRECTED TYPO

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A NEUTRAL TILT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF OF ALASKA - RIDGE OVER EASTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS - AND A LONG-WAVE TROUGH FROM EASTERN ASIA INTO THE
WESTERN PACIFIC. UPPER JET EXTENDS FROM ASIA AROUND BOTTOM OF
TROUGH AND UP TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS. AFTER BEING IN A VERY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS IT LOOKS LIKE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD A BIT AND THEN REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC - BERING SEA. THE JET WILL FORCE LOWS NORTHWARD
TO THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

MODELS ARE ALL VERIFYING WELL AND FORECAST SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST AREA.

FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...GALE FORCE OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING FROM LOW SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS BERING AND ALEUTIANS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE TO THE
EAST WILL KEEP IT FROM REACHING SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A LOW EAST OF
JAPAN WILL RIDE THE JET NORTHEASTWARD AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO THE
LOW TO MID 960S THURSDAY AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK INTO THE BERING AND GRADUALLY
FILL. GFS CURRENTLY INDICATES BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AS HIGH AS 70 KT
IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTOR OF THE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT. IF NEW MODEL
RUNS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPTH OF THIS LOW THEN DAY SHIFT MAY WANT
TO CONSIDER A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND GULF OF ALASKA...WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
SIT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WAITING FOR UPPER TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH
AND CLEAR THINGS OUT. MODELS INDICATE A SHORT-WAVE RIDING OVER THE
TOP OF EASTERN BERING RIDGE WILL DROP INTO SOUTHCENTRAL TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HELP DRIVE TROUGH EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. UNTIL THEN EXPECT MOST OF PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND INTO THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER AND MOISTURE WILL
MAKE IT BACK OVER MOUNTAINS INTO MAT VALLEY AND ANCHORAGE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORT-WAVE
DROPS INTO TROUGH AND TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...HELPING TO
PULL MOISTURE BACK WESTWARD. HAVING SAID THAT...IF THIS DOES OCCUR
EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE LIGHT AND SHORT-LIVED. LOOK FOR A DRYING AND
CLEARING TREND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
TROUGH PUSHES INTO CANADA AND UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN. SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

EXTENDED FORECAST...MAJOR BERING LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF PRECIP BACK TO SOUTHCENTRAL. ANOTHER LOW SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
ALEUTIANS FOR THE NEW WEEK. LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE ANCHORAGE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CNANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 172 175 176 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB APR 06