Small Craft Advisory 303, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT MON APR 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE GFS HAS A BETTER
SOLUTION OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH WED NIGHT BUT ETA DOES A
BETTER JOB BEYOND THAT POINT. GFS IS FINE OUT WEST.

UPPER AIR...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST AS AN UPPER LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
WESTERN ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA WEDNESDAY
THEN INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA AND
BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAKEN TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE SOUTHERN COOK INLET AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY AND WILL DISSIPATE TUESDAY.

SNOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WILL BECOME SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND MATANUSKA VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO BRISTOL BAY AND
THE SOUTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWER WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AS A
COLD DRY AIR MASS OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA MOVES SOUTH AND EAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120, 179, 180, 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM APR 06