Small Craft Advisory 300, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SUN APR 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE A VERY SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN ETA
ADVANCES THE ALEUTIAN LOW A LITTLE FASTER INTO BRISTOL BAY MONDAY
EVENING WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE MAIN CENTER NEAR DUTCH HARBOR AND
DEVELOPS A SECOND LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY. I CURRENTLY FAVOR THE GFS
SOLUTION BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE ETA MODEL.

UPPER AIR...THE UPPER RIDGE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE
EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER
KOTZEBUE SOUND WILL MOVE TO NEAR PRUDHOE BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY EVENING THEN MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK ARCTIC FRONT MOVING ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL MOVE OFF INTO WESTERN CANADA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SKY SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN LATE TONIGHT.

A MODERATE LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF ATKA THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE
TO 80 MILES NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN DROP
SOUTHEAST AND WILL DISSIPATE 300 MILE SOUTH OF SAND POINT TUESDAY
EVENING. A 988 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER BRISTOL BAY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY WHERE IT WILL REMAIN
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A STRONG WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL MOVE THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND KODIAK ISLAND LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE NORTH GULF OF ALASKA AND THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA MONDAY EVENING WHERE IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

WEATHER...
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING AND WILL CHANGE TO
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT AND WILL CHANGE TO
MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER THE SOUTH KENAI PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
SPREAD INTO PRINCE WILLIAMS SOUND AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY MONDAY
MORNING.

GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130, 132, 138, 155, 165, 170, 171, 172, 179, 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM APR 06