Small Craft Advisory 30, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST MON JAN 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE OLD
LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST PERSIST BUT ARE LESS NUMEROUS THAN YESTERDAY.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER AROUND KODIAK ISLAND UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
THE WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE ISLAND.
SNOW SHOWERS WERE PREVALENT ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS MORNING
BUT THEY HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE AS WELL AS THE DAY HAS GONE ON.

THE MOST INTERESTING FEATURE ON THE MAP IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WAS
NOT FORECAST BY ANY OF THE MODELS. IT IS NOT VERY STRONG BUT WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MAY BRING SOME SNOW ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY COAST
TUESDAY.
THIS HAS MOST LIKELY BEEN CAUSED BY COLD AIR DRIFTING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SIBERIA AND INTO THE BERING SEA WHERE THE DIFFERENCE IN DENSITY OF
THE AIR WAS ABLE TO ENHANCE LIFTING AND A SPIN ON THE NEW LOW. MODELS
ARE NOW CONSISTENT WITH INTENSIFYING IT SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN
MOVING IT TO NEAR PORT HEIDEN ON WEDNESDAY - WHERE IT SHOULD THEN
DISSIPATE.
IN THE BIGGER PICTURE THE ABILITY OF THIS COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE
BERING SEA PROBABLY INDICATES THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS BEGINNING
TO CHANGE. ALSO INDICATING THIS IS THAT FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THAT WE WILL BE MOVING INTO
A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH THE JET STREAM BECOMING LESS ZONAL
AND THE LONGWAVES INCREASING IN AMPLITUDE OVER THIS AREA OF THE WORLD
BY THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE CURRENT FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 06