Small Craft Advisory 285, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AST WED MAR 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN DOMAIN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GULF WILL BE PUSHED OUT TONIGHT
BY A WEAK RIDGE BEFORE A NEW LOW DEVELOPS NEAR AKHIOK ON THE TAIL END
OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING DOWN FROM SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.

UPPER LEVEL JET CROSSING OVER ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO BRING A NUMBER
OF LOWS INTO THE BERING THIS WEEK. AS THE JET TRAVELS SOUTH OF THE
GULF THIS IS KEEPING SYSTEMS FROM ENTERING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH
FRI.

IN THE EAST..MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL
STRATUS THAT WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG
IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM PALMER TO KENAI. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE SYSTEM
THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK AS THE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR KODIAK
MOVES NORTH AND BRINGS SOME PRECIP INTO SOUTHCENTRAL BY LATE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE WEST..A LOW NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR ATKA AND
MOVE UP THE WESTERN COAST NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. GFS HAS BEEN
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKENING THE LOW BUT IT IS THE OUTLIER ON STRENGTH.
MODELS HAVE BEEN IN AGREEMENT ON POSITIONING. SOME BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE Y-K DELTA WITH THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY. EXPECT
CONTINUED PRECIP FROM PRIBILOFS EAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI.

FOR THIS MORNING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE AK PENN AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXITS THE AREA. STRATUS AND FOG WILL LINGER NEAR
BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT RAIN AND WIND TO INCREASE
ALONG THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH THE APPROACHING LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 132 150 155 160 165 180 170 171 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW MAR 06