Small Craft Advisory 248, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST THU MAR 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
LOW OUT WEST IS OF COURSE THE MAJOR WEATHER GENERATOR FOR THE STATE
TODAY. GFS AND ETA IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES JUST NORTH OF PRIBILOFS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN VAST DISAGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING SYSTEM FURTHER
TO THE WEST.  GFS IS FASTER AND NOT AS STRONG AS ETA AND UK MET.
AFTER CONSIDERABLE DISCUSSION BETWEEN FORECASTERS...LOOKS LIKE BERING
SEA FORECAST WILL REFLECT A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
NEEDLESS TO SAY WE HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE OUT PAST 42 HOURS IN THIS
REGION.

NOT MUCH CHANGE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY.  FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW
MOVE INTO WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY MORNING.  CHANCE FOR SNOW
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITION BUT GFS MUCH DEEPER...LEANING A BIT
HEAVER TOWARDS GFS SINCE TROUGH AT 500 MB IS SIGNIFCANT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...SEE PACKAGE
MARINE...SEE PACKAGE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

*** MAR 06