Small Craft Advisory 239, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST MON MAR 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE ETA MODEL IS FINALLY IN SYNC WITH THE GFS MODEL. THE GFS HAS BEEN
AND CONTINUES TO BE THE PREFERRED MODEL.

UPPER AIR...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL PERSIST AND WILL MERGE
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN BERING SEA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN
BERING SEA BEHIND THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW MOVING CENTRAL
BERING THURSDAY.

A NORTHERLY 300 MB JET ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER WILL SHIFT WEST TO CUT
ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP INTENSIFY THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND WILL CREATE WARNING LEVEL WINDS
THROUGH THE CHANNELED TERRAIN AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE
GULF AND THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE ALASKA RANGE.

AT THE SURFACE...
THE OLD FRONT OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND BRISTOL BAY HAS DISSIPATED. A
WEAK LOW OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND DISSIPATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CLEAR WEATHER OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWEST INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST AND WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY.
CLOUDS AND A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND WESTERN BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY.

A 992 MB LOW 800 MILES SOUTH OF ATTU TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DEEPEN TO 975
MB NEAR ADAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR VALDEZ AND COPPER RIVER DELTA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...GALES AREAS 172, 175, 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM MAR 06