Small Craft Advisory 231, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST FRI MAR 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THOUGH IT APPEARS THE ETA MAY HAVE
A BETTER SOLUTION OVER THE WESTERN DOMAIN FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS.
BOTH ETA AND GFS BRINGS THE STRONG WINDS INTO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA A LITTLE TOO FAST BUT WE EXPECT THE WINDS TO
COME UP THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER AIR...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL DRIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
INTERIOR SATURDAY THEN WILL FORM A CLOSED UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHWEST
ALASKA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE STORM SYSTEMS
OVER THE BERING SEA AND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY.
THE 300 MB JET OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND KENAI PENINSULA WILL MOVE
THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS EVENING AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
TONIGHT. STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE SOUND AND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST WILL DIMINISH AFTER THE JET PASSES.

AT SURFACE...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL DRIFT INTO
NORTHWEST CANADA SUNDAY AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
SATURDAY THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TO THROUGH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER
BRISTOL BAY AND ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST SATURDAY AS IT RUNS
INTO THE UPPER RIDGE AND WILL STALL OVER KODIAK ISLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

WINDS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFY THROUGH
THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL CREATE
BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A
MILE AT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TO LESS THEN A QUARTER MILE TONIGHT.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE NEXT THEE DAYS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES 131, 135, 181 AND 185.
MARINE...STORM 179, 180 AND 185.
         GALE AREAS 138, 150, 160, 165, 172, 175, 176,
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

*** MAR 06