Small Craft Advisory 204, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST FRI MAR 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM
COOK INLET INTO EASTERN BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. HAS
DISSIPATED AS IT RUNS INTO A RIDGE IN OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA.
THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT HAS BROUGHT SNOW INTO KODIAK TODAY
IS WEAKENING AND MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA.

SATELLITE SHOWS A STRONG JET THAT COMES OFF OF SOUTHERN JAPAN AND
EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BEFORE CURVING BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS JET IS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN A NEW LOW EAST OF
KAMCHATKA THAT IS DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER LEFT EXIT AREA OF THE JET.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE ALMOST DUE EAST AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR BETHEL ON
SATURDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW INTO A GOOD PORTION OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE WEATHER FRONT THAT WILL FORM AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SNOWFALL AS WELL AS INCREASE THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND NUNIVAK
ISLAND. THIS HAS PROMPTED A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FOR
THAT AREA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE COMBINATION OF WINDS
TEMPERATURE AND SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE A BLIZZARD.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND A TROUGH OVER KAMCHATKA WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO MOVE SOUTH IN THAT AREA. THE JET
WILL REMAIN OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN DEVELOP
A NEW LOW ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GFS NAM AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL AROUND 60
HOURS. EVEN THEN THEY REMAIN REASONABLY CLOSE THROUGH 84 HOURS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 165 170 172 175 179 185.
         STORM 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ MAR 06