Small Craft Advisory 19, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
530 AM AST FRI JAN 6 2006

DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AS 00Z RUNS LOOK VERY
SIMILAR. SEVERAL DISSIPATING LOWS PICKED UP NICELY BY THE MODELS AS
WELL AS A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS IS WELL
REPRESENTED. MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BUT OVERALL PLEASED
WITH THE SOLUTIONS.

ALOFT...
ANCHOR UPPER LOW SOUTHEAST OF KAMCHATKA PENINSULA IS IN THE PROCESS
OF HANDING OFF ITS ENERGY TO A VERY STRONG SHORT WAVE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. AS THIS HAPPENS ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL TAKE ITS PLACE A
BIT FURTHER EAST IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DEVELOP INTO A CUTOFF LOW AS IT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND DISSIPATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS ALL RELATIVE TO A ZONAL JET MEANDERING ABOUT THE 45TH
PARALLEL.

SURFACE...
A 988 MB LOW AND THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING SPREADING CLOUDS AND SOME
PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. MIDDLETON AND KENAI RADARS
INDICATING PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. ANCHORAGE 12Z
SOUNDING DEPICTS DRY AIR 950 TO 750 MB BUT ERODING BECAUSE ECHOES ARE
INCREASING AND FLURRIES HAVE BEEN SPOTTED HERE AT ANCFO. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE FIRST 5000 FEET ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT SO
THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT COULD BE. EVEN SO
IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO GET ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES IN
ANCHORAGE WITH THESE WINDS ALOFT. GREATEST CHANCE FOR SNOW TODAY
ALONG UPSLOPED RANGE WEST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY AND ALONG TURNAGAIN
ARM. SIMILAR SITUATION ALONG THE WESTERN KENAI WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPING
CREATING A PRECIP SHADOW. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST THE TEMPERATURES
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT ARCTIC FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD AND
BRING RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL HEAD TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND
AND DISSIPATE ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER WEAKER LOW ON SATURDAY.
THIS ONE IS FAR LESS IMPRESSIVE BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT OF RAIN OR SNOW ALONG THE COAST. A STRONG LOW
WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND HAVE THE SAME FATE AS THE PREVIOUS LOWS...DRIFTING NORTHWARD AS
IT DISSIPATES SPREADING CLOUDS AND PRECIP ALONG THE COAST.

FURTHER WEST...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TODAY IS THE
MAIN PLAYER OUT WEST. AN OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATER TODAY BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIP.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH. THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR STAYS RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 155 170 171 172.

AB JAN 06