Small Craft Advisory 166, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AST TUE FEB 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. GFS SLIGHTLY PREFERRED. GFS
HANDLES WEAK LOWS IN THE WESTERN DOMAIN.

BROAD W-NWLY FLOW AT SURFACE PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. H500 SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT IS ENHANCING SNOW
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALASKA RANGE AND OVER THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS EAST OF PALMER AND THE
KENAI PENINSULA.

WESTERLY FLOW HAS IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. 100 KT PLUS JET
STREAK AT 300 MB WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ENTIRE JET STREAM DIPS SOUTH OF THE ANCHORAGE AOR BY WED
AFTERNOON.

WEAK LOW APPROX 90 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 340 NM SOUTH
OF KODIAK CITY BY WED AFTERNOON. ASSOC SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRAZE THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE
WEAK HIGH PRESURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

A 1009 MB LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL BECOME A 1012 MB LOW
300 NM EAST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND TUE EVENING AND A 1020 MB LOW OVER
WESTERN ALASKA THU NIGHT. EXPECT GALES BOTH IN ADVANCE AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN REAR FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 176 179 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB FEB 06