Small Craft Advisory 161, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN FEB 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY.

UPPER AIR PATTERN...AN AREA OF 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC
OCEAN AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE BERING
SEA AND MAINLAND ALASKA MAINLY IN A WESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ALASKA MONDAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY, SUSITNA
VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WITH THE TROUGH.

A WEAK UPPER VORT MAX OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE WILL BEHIND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE
YUKON TERRITORY MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT WAVE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND MONDAY MORNING
THEN TURN EAST AND WILL DISSIPATE NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND MONDAY
EVENING.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP KODIAK ISLAND MONDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE MARINE FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM FEB 06