Small Craft Advisory 137, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST FRI FEB 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM LOWER 48 WEST COAST TO BARROW WITH A TROUGH
FROM KAMCHATKA TO BRISTOL BAY. AT THE SURFACE A DEEP LOW IS OVER THE
PRIBILOFS AND A WEATHER FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTH GULF COAST. A
MIX OF RAIN SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL.
AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES IT IS BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WHICH SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN THE ETA
SOLUTION DIVERGES. GFS WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

IN THE EAST...

STRONG TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES. PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT...BUT CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF THE KENAI INTO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. RAIN WILL BE TYPICAL
ALONG THE COAST WITH SNOW INLAND. THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
REACH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATER ON SUN...BUT NOT BEFORE THE NEXT
FRONT BRINGS STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST AND
HEAVY PRECIP AS WELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN THE WEST...THE BROAD LOW OVER THE BERING WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE BEGINNING
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO A POSITION JUST EAST OF
KAMCHATKA SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL BRING STRONG
WIND AND SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS SAT THROUGH
SUN.

IN THE EXTENDED...A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EAST BEGINNING MONDAY WHICH
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE WEST...
A LOW WILL RACE NORTH ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING WITH STRONG
WINDS MON AND TUE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SUBSEQUENT
LOWS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER...BUT WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORMS...120
         GALES...150 155 160 172 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

*** FEB 06