Small Craft Advisory 1139, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1220 PM AST SAT DEC 9 2006

...CHILLY BREEZY AND SNOWY FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. BECOMING
COOLER WITH A THREAT OF A GOOD SHOT OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA...

WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONT NOW OVER NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME QUITE DIFFICULT
TO DETECT AS IT INCHES NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 968 MB
LOW CENTER NOW (NOON TIME) NEAR THE CENTRAL ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
MOVE INLAND NEAR DILLINGHAM LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD RESTART THE
CHINOOK WIND PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. AT THIS POINT IN
TIME IT APPEARS THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENUF FOR WARNING
LEVEL WINDS BUT GOOD ENUF FOR HEADLINES UNTIL MAYBE SUNDAY EVENING
WHEN THE GRADIENT RELAXES AGAIN. UNTIL THAT TIME AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE VARIED AMOUNTS AND
TYPES OF PRECIPITATION.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THINGS SHOULD COOL DOWN FOR SNOW ALL AREAS EXCEPT
SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND CORDOVA WHERE THE RAIN MAY HANG ON
LONGER. COLD AIR POURING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING WILL TAKE A TURN
TO THE EAST AND SPREAD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON MONDAY WITH THE MAIN
ARCTIC FRONT PASSING KODIAK SOMETIME MON AFTERNOON.

RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH OVERRUNNING AND
INTERACTION WITH THE REMAINING MOISTURE TO GIVE A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO SOUTHCENTRAL AT THE EARLIEST LATE MONDAY AND THE LATEST
MIDDAY TUE AS THE ARCTIC FRONT JUMPS THE ALASKA RANGE. VERY COLD WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS A NEARLY ICE FREE BERING
SEA SHOULD PRODUCE A LOT OF CLOUDINESS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN
ZONES INCLUDING THE ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING TOO FAR BELOW NORMAL IN BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA/VALLEY.

POWERFUL STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ON TUE
WITH THE CENTER HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY..ALL
WITH THE USUAL TIMING AND STRENGTH VARIATIONS.

COLD UPPER LOW OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WED AFTERNOON TO KICK A
SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WED NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH A
LOW IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG COOK
INLET MAY BRING 2ND SNOWSTORM TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK AS
STRONG STORM BEARS DOWN ON THE ALEUTIANS. OF COURSE THE TIMING OF
THESE EVENTS WILL CHANGE EACH DAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE AREAS 120..125..180..172..185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

PERCY DEC 06