Small Craft Advisory 1114, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST SAT DEC 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND IS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES TODAY DUE TO A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE
AL-CAN BORDER. THE RIDGE OUT OF THIS HIGH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST THROUGH
BRISTOL BAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TONIGHT TO A LOW
MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING AND BRING PRECIPITATION
WITH IT TO THE GULF COAST. SOUTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND EASTWARD
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. VALDEZ WILL PROBABLY SEE
MOSTLY SNOW DUE TO THE COLD AIR BEING ADVECTED THROUGH THOMPSON PASS
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY WINDS WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WE MAY NEED TO GIVE CONSIDERATION TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW IN THOMPSON PASS AS THIS
SYSTEM GOES THROUGH.
KODIAK WILL LIKELY SEE PRECIPITATION AS THE MOISTURE FROM THIS LOW
WILL FLOW OVER THE ISLAND AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF
KODIAK THROUGH MONDAY.
THE BIG ISSUE TO WATCH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES AS
THE RAIN MAY PENETRATE MUCH FURTHER INLAND IF THIS SYSTEM HAS MORE
WARM AIR WITH IT THAN IS INDICATED AT THIS POINT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
AS IF ANY PRECIPITATION INLAND WILL BE SNOW.

THE LARGE LOW IN THE BERING SEA THAT PROMPTED HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR
FOUR ZONES IS HEADING TOWARD EASTERN RUSSIA. STRONG WINDS REMAIN
AROUND THIS LOW BE IT IS NOW MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALL
HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE NOW BEEN CANCELED. IT WILL STILL REMAIN A
MARINE HAZARD IN THE BERING SEA TONIGHT HOWEVER.

NO BREAK FOR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AS THE NEXT LOW WILL APPROACH THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY AND PROCEED SOUTH OF THEM AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 960 MB RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN AT THAT POINT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT AS THE PREVIOUS
LOW THAT IS NOW IN THE BERING SEA SINCE IT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND NOT PLOW RIGHT THROUGH THEM.

PREFER THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION TO THE OTHER OPTIONS AVAILABLE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 170 171 175 179 185.
         STORM...172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ DEC 06