Small Craft Advisory 1107, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST THU NOV 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.
IN THE EAST...A SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL BRING
SNOW INTO THE AREA. ALREADY SNOW FALLING ON THE SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA AND THE PATTERN IS SETTING UP TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SNOW IN TONIGHT. BASIC PATTERN HAS A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STSTE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. WITH THIS IS SOME COLD
ADVECTION FROM THE WEST. THIS IS MOST EVIDENT IN THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURE FIELD. THE THERMAL PACKING AND NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION
OF THIS FIELD AND SETS UP WELL FOR A DECENT SNOWFALL IN THE  COOK
INLET AREA TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE COLD DOME WEST OF THE KENAI...CHUGACH...AND
TALKEETA MOUNTAINS AND PRECIPITATE OUT. ELEMENTS WORKING AGAINST
THIS IS THE FORECASTED POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW ON BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM MODEL KEEPS THE LOW A LITTLE SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
IF THIS LOW MOVED INTO THE SOUND THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE COOK
INLET REGION WOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. IT STILL IS A PRETTY GOOD
PATTERN TO GET SOME SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY TAPER OFF INTO
SNOW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ANS THE 500 MB TROUGH PASSES EAST
OF COOK INLET.

OTHER AREAS ALONG THE NORTH GULF CAOST CAN EXPECT TO SEE SNOWFALL AS
WELL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. KODIAK WILL BE THE
EXCEPTION AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS
AND DRY YOU OUT.

IN THE WEST A LARGE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC IS APPROACHING THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. IT WILL MOVE JUST WEST OF ADAK NEAR 960 MB FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE PROCEEDING INTO THE BERING SEA. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION
ALONG THE BACK PART OF THIS LOW WILL CREATE STRONG WINDS FOR THE
ENTIRE ALEUTIAN CHAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
BE IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A HIGH WIND
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT. A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN 191 ON THE BACK SECTION OF THIS
LOW. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE
FAVORABLE FOR A HIGH WIND SITUATION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 187.
         HIGH WIND WATCH 191.
MARINE...GALE...EASTERN ALEUTAINS...ALASKA PENINSULA.
         STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WIND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ NOV 06