Small Craft Advisory 1102, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST WED NOV 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...

...SUMMARY...
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NOW IN PLACE OVER ALASKA. THE MOST ACTIVE
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE OVER THE BERING/ALEUTIANS WITH
A SERIES OF STRONG LOW PRESSURES MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE MAINLAND WILL SEE GENERALLY QUIETER WEATHER...WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY....BUT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND AND
LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...MODELS...
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT AT ALL...BUT THEY DO AGREE WITH EACH
OTHER FAIRLY WELL AT THE MOMENT. HOPEFULLY...THE MODELS ARE SETTLING
ON A SOLUTION. THE MAIN MODEL CONCERNS INCLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LOW SOUTH OF SAND POINT THURSDAY MORNING AND ITS TRACK EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WHILE THE MODELS HAVE FAIRLY
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AT THIS POINT...THE TRACK
IS VERY IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL. THE OTHER MODEL CONCERN INVOLVES A POTENTIALLY POWERFUL
LOW TO IMPACT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRIDAY AND BERING SEA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  NAM AND GFS HAVE TRENDED MUCH STRONGER
WITH THIS LOW OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...AND WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS LOW FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS.

...SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF SAND POINT LATE TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW MORNING ON THE TAIL END OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND AS THIS
LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...PRECIP WILL RESULT FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KODIAK AND
POSSIBLY IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE GULF...PRECIP OVER LAND WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SNOW. THERE IS MORE MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM THAN THE LAST...SO IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

...SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FORECAST...
SYSTEM TO MOVE ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIP OVER THE AREA. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL HERE...WITH
AREAS OF MODERATE SNOW...RAIN...AND PERHAPS A CORNUCOPIA OF DIFFERENT
PRECIP TYPES ALONG THE COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM SECTOR.
THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH QUIET
WEATHER TO FOLLOW.

...BERING/ALEUTIAN FORECAST...
LOW PRESENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN BERING...BRINGING FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. MUCH
COOLER AIR IS FILTERING IS BEHIND THE LOW...BUT BY THE TIME THE AIR
IS COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW...THE PRECIP IS TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE SOUTHWEST ALASKA THURSDAY
MORNING. THE NEXT POTENTIALLY BIG LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRACK...BUT WILL BE STRONGER THAN ITS
PREDECESSOR. JUST HOW STRONG IS STILL A QUESTION...BUT POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. VERY ACTIVE PATTERN OF STRONG LOWS
TO PERSIST OVER THE BERING FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 185.
       GALE WARNING 130 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 180.

FOISY NOV 06