Small Craft Advisory 1085, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST FRI NOV 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS BEGIN
TO DIFFER A BIT OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING SEA AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE NEW RUN OF THE GFS MODEL HAS
WEAKENED THE LOW 8 TO 10 MB FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN AND APPEARS TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE UKMET AND THE NOGAP MODELS. I SUGGEST
THAT IF YOU USE THE GFS, YOU MAY WANT TO INCREASE THE WINDS AROUND
THE CENTER 5 TO 10 KTS.

UPPER AIR...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT THEN WILL DRIFT INTO INTO EASTERN ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWEST BERING SUNDAY NIGHT.

NEAR THE SURFACE...
EAST DOMAIN...
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THE YUKON
TERRITORY AND NORTHEAST ALASKA SHOULD KEEP THE KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH SUNNY.

A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
MOVE TO ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY EAST WINDS AND LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST AND
BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY WILL BRING MORE WIND AND SNOW INTO KODIAK ISLAND
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

WEST DOMAIN...
THE MAIN 980 MB LOW NEAR SHEMYA WILL DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND
DISSIPATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODERATE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC WILL SWING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA SUNDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODELS INDICATE A STRONG FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND LOW
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY AND WILL
MOVE INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA, BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW MOVING ONTO THE DELTA COAST
COULD POSSIBLY CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

THE WEAKENING FRONT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WILL DISSIPATE
LATER TONIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH KUSKOKWIM DELTA SUNDAY.
         HIGH WIND WARNING ALASKA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...GALE 150 155 170 171 172 175.
         STORM 160 165 179 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120 130 140 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 06