Small Craft Advisory 1074, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST TUE NOV 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. LONG TERM MODELS HAVE
BECOME MORE CONSISTENT IN STAGNANT PATTERN BREAKING DOWN THIS
WEEKEND. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LATEST GFS EXTENDED GUIDANCE.

EAST...HIGH OVER THE MAINLAND AND LOW IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD NORTHERLY FLOW CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.
SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL BREAKDOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE
BERING AND ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW TO REACH THE MAINLAND WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE CROSSING INTO THE GULF.

WEST...RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND ALASKA PENINSULA WILL HOLD
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW COMPLEX SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
SPREAD BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST ALONG THE CHAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MAINLAND WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHERLY COLD AND DRY FLOW UNTIL
FRIDAY WHEN OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION FROM SYSTEM OUT WEST REACHES
THE MAINLAND AND WARM FRONT IS PUSHED ASHORE OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...ICE FLOOD JAMMING 121
MARINE...GALE 172 175 176 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR NOV 06