Small Craft Advisory 1065, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SUN NOV 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH AWAY
FROM THE COAST. UPPER SUPPORT AND COLD ADVECTION ARE WEAKENING
ALLOWING HIGH WIND SPEEDS TO DECREASE. ALL WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED OR EXPIRED TO REFLECT THIS DECREASE. SHOWERS AROUND THIS
LOW ARE SCATTERED OVER THE GULF. A WEAK FRONT IS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE YUKON DELTA BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY. OTHERWISE
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BERING AND TROUGH
OVER THE GULF.

MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER LONG
TERM MODELS ARE VERY INCONSISTENT. THE QUESTION IS IF THE STAGNANT
PATTERN WILL BREAKDOWN AND ALLOW WARMER AND MORE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO THE MAINLAND. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH PREVIOUS RUN SHOWING THE
CURRENT PATTERN KEEPING HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE MODELS
SHOW CONSISTENCY.

EAST...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING EAST TO THE AKPEN TO HOLD IN PLACE
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE TROUGH IN THE GULF WILL BE PUSHED TO THE
EASTERN GULF. OVERALL PATTERN WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
MAINLAND WITH BRISK GAP WINDS...GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

WEST...A LOW COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SLOWLY BE
APPROACHING THE CHAIN. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE
BERING. RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CHAIN AND INTO THE
BERING THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE IN THE
COLD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...ICE JAM FLOODING 121
MARINE...GALE 150 172 175 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 130 138 140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR NOV 06