Small Craft Advisory 1035, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST WED NOV 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE DONE A FAIRLY GOOD JOB OF INITIALIZATION THIS MORNING.
ALL MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE PROGRESSION OF FEATURES AS WELL.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE NAM HAS PICKED UP ON THE LOW MOVING SOUTH OVER
WESTERN ALASKA BETTER. IT IS DEEPER THAN THE GFS INITIALLY AND
RIGHTFULLY SO. THEREFORE...WE HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF A LOW BEING
STAMPED FROM NORTHWEST ALASKA TODAY ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA
THURSDAY AND FINALLY DISSIPATING IN THE GULF AS IT MERGES WITH
ANOTHER LOW FRIDAY. IN CONTRAST...THE THOUGHT IS THE GFS WILL HANDLE
THE DEVELOPING LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF TOMORROW BETTER THAN THE NAM.
THIS IS TRUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ENSEMBLES FROM THE GFS AND THE 12Z
ECMWF KEEP A LOW IN THE GULF THROUGH MONDAY. BELIEVE THIS TO BE TRUE
AS THE HIGH OVER THE BERING WILL MOST LIKELY NOT KNOCK THIS LOW OUT
OF THE AREA.

UPPER AIR...CURRENTLY...A WEAK UPPER LOW IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAMPED OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TODAY AND
CARVING OUT A TROUGH OVER THE GULF BY TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS WORKING SOUTH OUT OF THE ARCTIC ACROSS
WESTERN ALASKA. THIS WAVE TO DROP INTO BRISTOL BAY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS THE WEAK LOW IN THE GULF ROTATES TO THE NORTHWEST AND MERGES.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE GULF MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY. THE LOW IN BRISTOL BAY MERGES WITH THE GULF
LOW FRIDAY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS PATTERN TO REMAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...THE POLAR LOW SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST ALASKA WITH
THE LOW IN THE GULF MOVING TO THE PANHANDLE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING THEN OCCUPIES THE ENTIRE BERING SUNDAY.

SURFACE WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN BERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
PUSH OVER THE ENTIRE BERING BY SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE BIG
CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS IN THE EASTERN BERING AND ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT THERE
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FIRST LOW TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN ALASKA
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS LOW TO CROSS INTO THE GULF THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME SNOW TO ACCOMPANY THIS LOW AS WELL. HOWEVER...GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PROBLEM OVER THE EASTERN BERING. WITH THE
LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN
BERING...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW TO REMAIN IN WESTERN ALASKA AND THE
EASTERN BERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SURFACE EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...A WEAK LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF
BRINGING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
INLAND...STRONG WINDS MOVING THROUGH NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED GAPS. THIS
LOW TO MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUT AN END TO THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THESE GAPS.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER
INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A STRONG LOW TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THE GULF TOMORROW AND MOVE TOWARD THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS LOW THE NORTH SOUTH GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL MEAN A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED GAP
WINDS. THE LOW IS DEEPER AND THUS WINDS WILL BE NEAR HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA. IN ADDITION...AN EASTERLY WAVE TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW. THE LOW IN THE GULF TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE CENTRAL GULF. DRIER
CONDITIONS FOLLOW THE WAVE FRIDAY. THESE DRIER CONDITIONS TO SPREAD
OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS WELL FRIDAY NIGHT AND ENTIRE SOUTH CENTRAL
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS FURTHER AND MOVES TO THE
EASTERN GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH ZONE 135.
MARINE...GALE 155 170 171 172 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN NOV 06