Small Craft Advisory 1016, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST FRI NOV 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODEL ARE STILL IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. GFS MODEL MOVES THE
LOWS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA FASTER THAN THE NAM MODEL. BUT SINCE
THESE STORM WILL MOVE TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA, WINDS FROM EITHER
MODEL SHOULD BE SIMILAR.

UPPER AIR.
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKEN INTO A RIDGE
SUNDAY. THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST WILL MOVE OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY.

THE NORTHERLY JET OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND ALONG COOK INLET WILL
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT THEN
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

NEAR THE SURFACE.
THE RIDGE OVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR CONTINUES TO HOLD BUT WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH OVER THE BERING SEA WILL
DRIFT SOUTH AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY. A WEAK
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST AND NORTH SIDE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
DISSIPATE SUNDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SOUTH OF THE
GULF.

WEATHER.
MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL EXPERIENCE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS WITH VERY LITTLE WIND.

THERE WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS BEING CHANNELED THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES IN THE ALASKA AND CHUGACH MOUNTAIN RANGES DUE TO A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND WITH SUPPORT
OF THE NORTHERLY JET. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH BROAD PASS AND THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST LONGER THROUGH THOMPSON PASS AND THE COPPER RIVER DELTA, AT
LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES IN THE WINDY AREAS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 15
BELOW.

CLOUD WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A FEW BREAKS DEVELOPING SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW MOVE THROUGH
NUNIVAK ISLAND SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 06