Small Craft Advisory 1015, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST THU NOV 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING.

UPPER AIR...THE MAIN UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT
SOUTH AND WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL SWING EAST INTO WESTERN INTERIOR OF
ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY. A UPPER TROUGH
OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY JET OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE SOUTHEAST
BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST TO LIE OVER EASTERN ALASKA, THE COOK INLET
AND ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN ALASKA SATURDAY. THIS JET WILL HELP BOOST SOME LOCAL WINDS
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE CHUGACH MOUNTAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.

BOTH NAM AND GFS MODELS SHOW COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND INCREASE THE WINDS
BLOWING OUT OF THE GAPS IN THE TERRAIN.

OTHERWISE THE GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND SHOULD KEEP THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OF HIGH RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MAINLAND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
BERING SEA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

INCREASING WINDS THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA DEVELOPING TONIGHT
SHOULD KEEP THE STRATUS AND FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 121.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 06