Small Craft Advisory 1009, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST TUE OCT 31 2006

.DISCUSSION...

WEST...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE BERING SEA SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY..STARTING TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY.  CURRENTLY
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL...HOWEVER GRADUAL COOLING OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IS STRATUS AND FOG. SHOULD START TO SEE SIGNIFICANT NORTH
WINDS ON THURSDAY AS ARCTIC JET FORMS ALOFT.  NOT AS MUCH LOW LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF COLD AIR...NEVERTHELESS SHOULD BE BREEZY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

EAST...WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST..MAIN ISSUE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IS STRATUS AND FOG.  PROBABLY
WILL BE SOME ISOLATED AREAS WITH FOG...MAINLY IN COOK INLET.  MODELS
INDICATING INCREASING NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT ON TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY AS COLD AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE YUKON.  MAIN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD HOWEVER DEVELOP
THURSDAY. WITH MAIN ARCTIC JET TO THE WEST AND A LACK OF SURFACE LOW
IN THE NORTHERN GULF...NOT EXPECTING THIS WIND EVENT TO BE SEVERE.

MODELS...GFS AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT (12Z RUNS) THROUGH 42 HOURS.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE FLIP-FLOP AND DISAGREEMENT ON POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.
HENCE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 06