Small Craft Advisory 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST SAT DEC 31 2005

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL PLANETARY TROUGH PERSISTS BETWEEN JAPAN AND THE ROCKIES
TODAY...WITH EMBEDDED LOWS OVER KAMCHATKA...THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...
AND JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. A ZONAL JET CROSSES THE PACIFIC
AROUND 40 N WITH A 180 KT MAX.

THE SURFACE IS DOMINATED BY A LOW NEAR SITKINAK WITH ONSHORE FLOW
PRODUCING SHOWERS ALONG THE THE NORTH GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LOW ARE AFFECTING
THE ALASKA PENINSULA...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. SLOW BUT STEADY COLD ADVECTION
IS BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR TO THE BERING AND WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE SITKINAK LOW IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA THROUGH MON. THIS WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND RAIN ALONG
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF MOUNTAINS ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH SNOW AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP WILL MAKE IT PAST THE CHUGACH
RANGE WHICH MEANS PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS INLAND. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE ALEUTIAN RANGE IN THE
BRISTOL BAY ZONE AS WELL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS ON NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

IN THE EXTENDED...

A LOW FOLLOWING THE JET STREAM WILL CURVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG EAST WINDS FOR
THE GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND ON TUE AND WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH MOST PRECIP
REMAINING OFFSHORE INTO THE WEEKEND.

IN THE WEST...ZONAL FLOW BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN BERING BY TUE. CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
COAST OF JAPAN WILL BRING A STRONG FRONT AFFECTING THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND BERING BEGINNING WED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS DEC 05