High Surf Advisory 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT THU OCT 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE LOW IN THE BERING SEA WHICH IS
FAIRLY WEAK.  ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST WHICH
WOULD INDICATE THIS LOW IS NOT QUITE AT THE END OF ITS LIFE CYCLE.
IT SHOULD KEEP ITS STRENGTH AND POSITION FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS RAPIDLY LOSING ITS JET
SUPPORT AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION.  300 MB
ANALYSIS SHOWS A 125KT JET MAX MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD DEEPEN THE TROUGH IN THE NEXT 24 HRS AND CREATE A MORE
NORTH/SOUTH JET PATTERN OVER THE STATE.  OF INTEREST ARE THE NEXT TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THE MODELS INDICATE ARE FORMING...ONE OUT WEST
AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF THE GULF OF AK.  THE STORM OUT WEST WILL STEAL
THE ENERGY FROM THE LOW IN THE BERING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND
EVENTUALLY MELD INTO A COMPLEX LOW SYSTEM IN THE BERING.  MEANWHILE
THE STORM IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MAKES A BEELINE FOR THE MAINLAND AS IT
PICKS UP THE INCREASED NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE JET.

OUT WEST...NOT MUCH NEWS IN THE ALEUTIANS TODAY AS THEY GET A BRIEF
BREAK BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.  ANY REMAINING GUSTY WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD DECREASE AS THE LOW GETS WEAKER.  AS FOR
THE AK PEN AND WEST COAST THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL
FLOODING AS THE STORM SURGE FROM THIS FRONT APPROACHES.  AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY BUT WILL STILL
BRING SOME RAIN TO THE WESTERN SITES.

IN THE EAST...EXPECT SOME LINGERING LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.  AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN THINGS MAY
CLEAR SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT THE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM
THE LOW IN THE PACIFIC WILL MAKE ITS WAY RAPIDLY TOWARD THE REGION ON
FRIDAY.

MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY.  THE MODELS
INITIALIZED WELL BUT NAM SEEMS TO BE OFF WITH THE FORECAST.  ONE MAIN
PROBLEM WITH THIS NAM RUN IS THAT IT MISSED THE LOW NEAR THE AK PEN
ON FRIDAY.  ALSO NAM IS THE OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO THE NEXT LOW
MOVING UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE GULF OF AK.  THE OTHER
THREE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM MOVING MUCH MORE RAPIDLY INTO
THE GULF...ALMOST 6 HRS FASTER THAN THE NAME.  GIVEN THESE PROBLEMS
GFS SEEMS THE BEST CHOICE FOR TODAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THE COMPLEX LOW SYSTEM IN THE BERING WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING WINDS AND RAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT THE WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
WARNING LEVEL.  IN THE EAST THE LOW COMING UP TOWARDS THE MAINLAND
LOOKS TO HIT LAND NEAR THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.  THIS WILL BRING
WIND AND RAIN TO THE EAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...CF WATCH 155
MARINE...GALE 155 160 165 180 170 171 172 175 176 185 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF OCT 06