Gale Warning 980, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SUN DEC 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...

...SUMMARY...
MOIST...MILD PATTERN NOW FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR THE REGION. A STRONG JET
STREAM WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...WITH STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURES RIDING ALONG ITS NORTH SIDE. THESE SURFACE LOWS WILL ROTATE
CYCLONICALLY AROUND A BROADER LOW CENTERED OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN
BERING BUT ENCOMPASSING THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA. WHAT THIS BASICALLY
MEANS IS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOIST CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT WEEK OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA.

...MODELS...
OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE COME TO BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME VERY KEY DIFFERENCES...THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT INVOLVING A LOW JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY THIS
MORNING. ACCORDING TO 06Z SCATTEROMETER WINDS...06Z GFS MODEL
INITIALIZED BETTER WITH THE SURFACE LOW...AND WE ARE TRENDING
FORECAST TOWARD ITS SOLUTION...WHICH HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW THAN THE NAM. THIS WOULD BRING MORE SNOW THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE LOW NEAR KODIAK. AROUND 1.7 INCHES PRECIPITATION AS A
RAIN SNOW MIX HAS FALLEN AT KODIAK SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...A
TESTAMENT TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS ALSO A
LOT OF WARM AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MODELS...PARTICULARLY MOS
GUIDANCE...HAVE HAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WAY TOO
COOL THIS MORNING...AS COLD AIR IN THE VALLEYS HAS ERODED QUICKLY AND
DRAMATICALLY. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
COASTAL AREAS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA TO VALDEZ. DO
NOT EXPECT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIP TO MAKE IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO
PLACES LIKE ANCHORAGE...TALKEETNA...PALMER...AND THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN...BECAUSE OF STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT MOUNTAIN LEVEL.
PRECIP SHOULD KEEP GOING INTO MONDAY OVER COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL
BECAUSE OF VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE LOW WEAKENS.
ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE UP INTO SOUTHCENTRAL FROM THE
GULF THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BRINGING FREQUENT BURSTS OF RAIN AND SNOW.
WE ARE CERTAINLY IN A TOTALLY OPPOSITE WEATHER PATTERN THAN NOVEMBER.

...SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FORECAST...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR TODAY EAST
OF DILLINGHAM TO ILIAMNA. INTENSITY AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF SNOWFALL A
BIT OF A SURPRISE THIS MORNING BECAUSE OF FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST GULF. A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW HAS ALREADY
BROUGHT 5 INCHES OF SNOW TO KING SALMON AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE SNOW TO KEEP ON GOING FOR BRISTOL BAY AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE REPRIEVE BECAUSE OF THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODS OF SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST.

...ALEUTIAN/BERING SEA FORECAST...
THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA ARE IN A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WEATHER
THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...BUT A STRONG LOW WILL BEGIN TO
HEAVILY IMPACT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BEGINNING LATE
TODAY. THIS LOW WILL RIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGH END GALE FORCE WINDS IMPACTING THE CHAIN.
WITH THE STRONG JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...EXPECT MORE STRONG LOWS
TO FOLLOW FOR THE NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY MAINLY FALL
IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH THE UPCOMING BIG SYSTEM...BUT SNOW WILL MIX
IN OVER SOME AREAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 138 155 170 171 172 175 176 179 410.

FOISY DEC 06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1130 AM AST SUN DEC 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1124 AM     SNOW             EGEGIK                  58.23N 157.39W
12/03/2006  E0.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER IN EGEGIK AS OF 1130 AM AST REPORTED
            8-10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH
            MORE CONTINUING TO FALL.

1124 AM     SNOW             KING SALMON             58.74N 156.54W
12/03/2006  E0.0 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            THE KING SALMON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AS OF 900
            AM AST HAS REPORTED 7.3 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN SINCE
            LAST NIGHT...WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL.

1124 AM     SNOW             KOLIGANEK               59.73N 157.28W
12/03/2006  E0.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER IN KOLIGANEK AS OF 1130 AM AST REPORTED
            3-4 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH SNOW
            CONTINUING TO FALL.

&&

DANG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1230 PM AST SUN DEC 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1124 AM     SNOW             IGIUGIG                 58.23N 157.39W
12/03/2006  E8.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER IN EGEGIK AS OF 1130 AM AST REPORTED
            8-10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH
            MORE CONTINUING TO FALL.

1124 AM     SNOW             KING SALMON             58.74N 156.54W
12/03/2006  E7.3 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            THE KING SALMON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AS OF 900
            AM AST HAS REPORTED 7.3 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN SINCE
            LAST NIGHT...WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL.

1124 AM     SNOW             KOLIGANEK               59.73N 157.28W
12/03/2006  E3.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER IN KOLIGANEK AS OF 1130 AM AST REPORTED
            3-4 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH SNOW
            CONTINUING TO FALL.

&&

DANG