Gale Warning 913, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 281608 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
700 AM AST TUE NOV 28 2006

CORRECTED AREA 120

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-290300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 1000 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 984 MB 150 NM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
MOVE TO 30 NM NORTHWEST OF KETCHIKAN BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A 1005 MB
LOW. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY WILL
MOVE TO WESTERN KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-290300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST TUE NOV 28 2006

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO
22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
29 FT SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-290300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST TUE NOV 28 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-290300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST TUE NOV 28 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3
FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-290300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST TUE NOV 28 2006

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING W 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-290300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST TUE NOV 28 2006

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 18 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY NORTHWEST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT AND SUBSIDING. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-290300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST TUE NOV 28 2006

...STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT AND SUBSIDING. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-290300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST TUE NOV 28 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-290300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST TUE NOV 28 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-290300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST TUE NOV 28 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 290016
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE NOV 28 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-291500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 992 MB LOW 220 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE
TO 200 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AT 988 MB WED AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-291500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST TUE NOV 28 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT SUBSIDING. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-291500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST TUE NOV 28 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-291500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST TUE NOV 28 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-291500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST TUE NOV 28 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KTS OR LESS BECOMING W WIND 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ130-291500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST TUE NOV 28 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
13 FT. SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT SUBSIDING. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-291500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST TUE NOV 28 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-291500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST TUE NOV 28 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
SNOW.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-291500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST TUE NOV 28 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-291500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST TUE NOV 28 2006

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST MON NOV 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN
MOST OF THE MONTH HAS NOW MOVED EASTWARD INTO CANADA. A FRONT
EXTENDING OUT OF A LOW IN EASTERN RUSSIA HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN
ALASKA BRING SOME SNOW TO MOST AREAS AND RAIN TO SOME OF THE COASTAL
AREAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OUT OF A LOW IN EASTERN RUSSIA AND
DROPS OVER THE BERING SEA TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD A NEW CUT OFF LOW WILL
DEVELOP JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND LATE TUESDAY. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS
LINKED TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE INTO THE NORTH GULF OF ALASKA
TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS SET UP WITH A CUT OFF LOW IN
THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL MOST LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY SNOW FROM
OCCURRING IN THE COOK INLET AREA.
THIS LOW WILL GIVE WAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO A TRANSIENT RIDGE THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AREA.

IN THE WEST THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST ANOTHER DAY UNTIL A NEW LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND AROUND 975 MB THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO A GOOD AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION ON THE FRONT END OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE RAIN.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE APPROACHING LOW IN THE WEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER THAN THE NAM. WITH THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR IN THE FRONT OF
THE SYSTEM COMPARED WITH THE STRONG DOSE OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT...IT
MAKE SENSE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE NAM ADVERTISES
AND POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS THE GFS IS SHOWING.
THERE IS NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH THE LOW HEADING
INTO THE GULF. THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AND MOVES THE SYSTEM FURTHER
TO THE EAST FASTER. THE GFS HAS BEEN DOING BETTER WITH HANDLING
SYSTEMS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH SO WE WILL GO MORE WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION IN THE FORECASTS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...
MARINE...GALE 125 130 132 172 175.
         STORM 120.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 06