Gale Warning 896, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 220030
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE NOV 21 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-221500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST + KODIAK ISLAND WATERS + 
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA.

$$

PKZ120-221500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST TUE NOV 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-221500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST TUE NOV 21 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-221500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST TUE NOV 21 2006

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF NORTHERN
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-221500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST TUE NOV 21 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-221500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST TUE NOV 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-221500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST TUE NOV 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-221500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST TUE NOV 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-221500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST TUE NOV 21 2006

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-221500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST TUE NOV 21 2006

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST MON NOV 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...NCEP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS REASONABLE. GFS IN SHORT
TERM HANDLES LOW SYSTEM APPROACHING THE ALEUTIANS BETTER. GFS ALSO
DOES FAIR JOB MAINTAINING INVERTED TROUGH IN THE GULF AS COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES.

.UPPER AIR...RESIDENT LOW CENTER OVER THE NE PACIFIC HAS CHANGED
LITTLE OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO. FORECAST IS TO MOVE CENTER SE AND
WEAKEN IT. HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN PORTION OF
LONGWAVE OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND/EASTERN GULF THROUGH THU. HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA MOVES TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA
WED AND SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS WILL TEND
TO MAINTAIN NW FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINLAND TO WESTERN GULF. GFS
STRENGTHENS THE NORTH PACIFIC JET AND UNDERCUTS EASTERN BERING SEA/AK
PEN RIDGE FRI AFTN/SAT. BY SUN A FAIRLY STRONG LOW CENTER ENTERS THE
BERING SEA AND SETS UP SW FLOW FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE SW MAINLAND.
GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWS HUGE SPREAD IN MEMBERS AND NEWEST RUNS CONTINUE
TO PUSH TIMING BACK. SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD STATUS QUO.

.SURFACE EAST...
NOT MUCH CHANGE REALLY EXPECTED FOR NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COLD HIGH
MAINTAINS OVER THE MAINLAND AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER
THE GULF(ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT WEAKER).  PRESSURE GRADIENTS LIKELY TO
DIMINISH SOME TODAY...HOWEVER BRISK GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTH GULF AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL.

.SURFACE WEST...WINDS OVER THE AK PEN/BRISTOL WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WEAKENS AND BERING SEA RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT STRATUS AND SOME FOG LIKELY TO BE ISSUES FOR
COASTAL SW AK TONIGHT AND TUE. LOW COMPLEX SW OF THE ALEUTIANS LIKELY
TO KEEP BRISK SE WINDS OVER THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...ICE JAM FLOOD WARNING ZONE 121.
MARINE...GALE 121 129 172 175 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
RMC NOV 06