Gale Warning 815, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT THU OCT 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL SHORT/LONG TERM MOST CONSISTENT AND WILL BE
USED IN FORECAST PACKAGES.

.UPPER AIR...LOW OVER MIDDLETON ISLAND DISSIPATES FRI. MAINLAND
PORTION OF THE TROUGH CLEARS THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN FRI
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE GULF PORTION LAGS BEHIND AND MOVES OVER THE
CANADIAN PROVINCES SAT NIGHT. RIDGE AXIS ALONG 180W AND EXTENDING
NORTH THROUGH THE BERING SEA MOVES TO ALONG 150W SAT NIGHT. SW FLOW
SETS UP OVER THE BERING SEA FRI AFTERNOON AS TROUGH MOVES TO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA. SW FLOW SPREADS TO THE MAINLAND SAT NIGHT AS
TROUGH MOVES TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA.

.EAST...990S LOW CENTER NEAR MIDDLE ISLAND DRIFTS SOUTH TONIGHT AND
WEAKENS. EXPECT SNOWS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. COPPER RIVER BASIN LIKELY TO KEEP SOME
LIGHT SNOW INTO FRI UNTIL UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. INVERTED TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE GULF FRI AND HOLDS THROUGH SAT. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE INTERIOR WILL PRODUCE GAP WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL/NORTH GULF FRI...THEN DIMINISH ON SAT.
OVERRUNNING SNOW LIKELY TO MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL SAT NIGHT WITH
ONSET OF SW FLOW IN LOW/MID LEVELS.

.WEST... NW FLOW AND SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE EASTERN BERING
THROUGH TONIGHT AS RIDGE PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD. STRATUS AND
SOME FOG LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE AK PEN/EASTERN BERING SEA INTO FRI.
NEXT STORM TO ENTER THE BERING SEA IS DEVELOPING NEAR 45N 162E THIS
AFTERNOON. SHIP REPORTS IN AREA INDICATE A CENTRAL PRESSURE AT OR
JUST BELOW 1000 MB AT 18Z. HIGH LEVEL PILOT REPORTS OVER AREA SHOW
CENTER UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE JET REGION. GFS MODEL INITIALIZATION WITH
CENTER SEEMS REASONABLE AS WELL AS FORECAST TRACK. EXPECT SOUTHERLY
STORMS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRI/FRI NIGHT.
CENTER INTENSIFIES TO 988 MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR ST. MATTHEW ISLAND
SAT AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WARM OCCLUSION MOVES TO JUST OFF THE SW
MAINLAND SAT MORNING WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE SW MAINLAND
SAT MORNING ALONG THE SNOW ALONG THE COASTS WHICH SHOULD MIX UP OR
CHANGE TO RAIN SAT AFTERNOON. MAY SEE FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SW AK SAT BEFORE SHIFT TO RAIN ALONG COAST...MAY SPREAD TO SOUTHERN
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SAT NIGHT. SW FLOW SETTING UP OVER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
SAT/SAT NIGHT COULD BRING IN SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONES 187 AND 191.
MARINE...STORM 172, 175, 176, 179
         GALE 130, 170, 180, 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 06