Gale Warning 788, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON SOULIK MAKE UP THE 963 MB LOW
SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR. THIS SYSTEM IS HEADING STEADILY INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND THEN SHOULD MOVE ON SHORE JUST SOUTH OF YAKUTAT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO AROUND 990 MB BY THAT TIME.
STORM FORCE WINDS SURROUND THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS BEING
SOUTH OF IT AND OUTSIDE THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST AREA. THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE
NORTH GULF COAST BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD END UP IN
SOUTHEAST ALASKA DUE TO THE JET STREAM INFLUENCE. THIS IS AN
IMPRESSIVE STORM ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...ESPECIALLY THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE FROM THIS MORNING WHEN THE LOW SUN ANGLE REALLY HIGHLIGHT
THE HEIGHT OF THE CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT.

THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM IS WEST OF ATTU THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING INTO
THE BERING SEA TOMORROW. THERE IS A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS DUE TO THIS SYSTEM FOR TOMORROW. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
POOL OF COLD AIR IN EASTERN RUSSIA AND KAMCHATKA THAT WILL BE
ENTRAINED INTO THIS SYSTEM AND THAT SHOULD STRENGTHEN IT AND PUSH THE
WINDS UP AS WELL.

MODELS ARE PERFORMING WELL IN THEIR TRACK. OBSERVATIONS WITH THE OLD
SOULIK SYSTEM SHOW THAT THE MODELS ARE STILL A LITTLE WEAK AS TO THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING FOR THAT THE MODELS SEEM TO BE
HANDLING BOTH SYSTEMS WELL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 191.
MARINE...GALE 150 165 171 172 179.
         STORM 155 170 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 06