Gale Warning 763, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT SUN OCT 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING
THROUGH BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS PUSHING A STRONG FRONT
NORTH THROUGH THE GULF TODAY. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENTS AROUND THE LOW
IN THE GULF AND EASTERN BERING SEA WITH STRONG WINDS. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE THROUGH SOME GAPS. PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW AS WELL. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...GOOD FETCH OF MOISTURE
WITH THE CURRENT STORM FROM THE SUB TROPICS. THIS WILL MEAN SOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

UPPER LEVELS...LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER BERING INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC ALONG 170W WITH A STRONG NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED JET ALONG 155W.
STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO SWING THE
TROUGH AXIS EAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE JET MOVING TO 150W. A
PIECE OF THE VORT MAX TO ROLL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CLOSED
COLD LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING TOMORROW. THE REMAINDER TO RIDE NORTH
THROUGH THE MAINLAND. THIS WILL ADD SOME ENERGY TO THE SURFACE FRONT
WORKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE GULF TO
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TOMORROW. THE UPPER LOW IN THE BERING TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TUESDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN BERING IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PUSHING TO THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. A CLOSED LOW TO BREAK OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN FROM THE BERING TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS TO
MERGE WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH FRIDAY SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE LOW OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN BERING THURSDAY AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL BERING
FRIDAY. GOOD JET SUPPORT WITH THIS LOW FOR SOME STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
AT THE SURFACE.

SURFACE...SURFACE TROUGH IN BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON TO MOVE INLAND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW FROM THE
GULF TO THE EASTERN BERING. IN ADDITION...GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITH THE WARM FRONT IN THE GULF AND COLD FRONT IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ABOVE
NEAR THESE AREAS TO PRODUCE WARNING LEVELS WINDS NEAR THESE
GRADIENTS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE THROUGH GAPS. THE LOW CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF THE CHAIN TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH BRISTOL BAY TOMORROW. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
THE AKPEN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS.

PRECIPITATION TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HAVE
ISSUED A FEW SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES COLD AIR ALOFT OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LIFT FOR RAIN CONTINUING THERE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND PUSH ACROSS THE MAINLAND TUESDAY WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE ARCTIC
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE LOW IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE CHAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH. A
NEW LOW TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY WITH A GOOD WARM
FRONT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNINGS 101...125...135...181...AND 185
         SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY 125...135...161...AND 171
MARINE...STORM 120 130 132 138 155 170
         GALE 121 125 129 140 141 150 160 165 171 172 175 179
              180 AND 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN OCT 06