Gale Warning 680, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 211155
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT THU SEP 21 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 994 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NORTH TO 60 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HOMER AND DEEPEN TO 980 MB THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE
INLAND OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 
$$

PKZ120-220200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT THU SEP 21 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-220200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT THU SEP 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-220200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT THU SEP 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-220200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT THU SEP 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-220200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT THU SEP 21 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-220200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT THU SEP 21 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-220200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT THU SEP 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-220200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT THU SEP 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-220200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT THU SEP 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 212358
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT THU SEP 21 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-221400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 985 MB LOW NEAR SITKINAK WILL MOVE INTO COOK INLET THIS EVENING 
AND THEN MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF SAT.

$$

PKZ120-221400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT THU SEP 21 2006

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.   

$$

PKZ121-221400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT THU SEP 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   

$$

PKZ125-221400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT THU SEP 21 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   

$$

PKZ129-221400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT THU SEP 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-221400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT THU SEP 21 2006

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT. WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 35
KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. WEST
OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-221400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT THU SEP 21 2006

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-221400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT THU SEP 21 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT THIS EVENING BECOMING W 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-221400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT THU SEP 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WIND BECOMING VARIABLE
15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-221400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT THU SEP 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
735 AM ADT WED SEP 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...

ANALYSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING ARE THE
LOCAL PLAYERS IN THE CURRENT 5 WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN.  THE
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW THAT AFFECTED THE AOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
HAS MERGED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR ALLOWING FOR
SOME RIDGING FROM THE STRONG PACIFIC HIGH TO WORK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS MORNING.  A DEEPENING LOW 300 MILES SOUTH
OF THE AKPENN ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE THE
NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. AS MUCH OF ALASKA SITS
POISED FOR THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF RELENTLESS LOWS...CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS TO APPROACH THEIR DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S...SETTING UP A DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE UP TO 660 FT...PER
THE ANCHORAGE SOUNDING.  FOG HAS FORMED IN THE TRADITIONALLY PRONE
AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH THIS SHALLOW INVERSION IT WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY THIS AM.

MODEL ANALYSIS...THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE SHOULDER SEASON WEATHER PATTERN IN THEIR STRENGTH/TIMING/RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY. WITH THE STORM CENTER HIDDEN BENEATH HIGH CLOUDS
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND VERY LITTLE DATA IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...HARD
TO SAY HOW THE MODELS INITIALIZED OVERNIGHT IN REGARD TO THE LOW
APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE 0Z
UKMET/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE ARE IN PHASE THROUGH 42 HOURS WITH THE WRF
SOLUTION BEING MUCH SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...ALTHOUGH THE 06Z WRF
RUN SHOWS MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/UKMET.  THE NEWEST 0Z AND 6Z
RUNS OF THE GFS/UKMET SHOW THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK TO THE WEST OF
THE KENAI PENINSULA...THIS HAS BEEN A POINT OF CONTENTION THE LAST
MANY MODEL RUNS AND HAS SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATIONS ON THE SOUTH
CENTRAL FORECAST.  HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION
GIVEN ITS BETTER TRACK RECORD.

SHORT TERM...HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE
PACIFIC LOW TO 980 MB AS IT APPROACHES COOK INLET TONIGHT BRINGING
WITH IT INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CHOSEN WESTERLY
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS A DRIER PATTERN FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY...BUT RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AOR TONIGHT AND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...TO
INCLUDE THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTERIOR ZONES.  TURNAGAIN ARM
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

EXTENDED...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND INBETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. SATURDAY EVENING ANOTHER LOW COURTESY OF THE
EASTERN RUSSIA BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO DEEPEN SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND HEADS EAST. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN IN THE SHORT TERM CAN BE EXPECTED TO AMP UP DEPENDING
ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS LOW SKIRTS...NOT EXPECTING ADVISORY/WARNING
LEVEL WINDS EITHER WAY.  MODELS DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW ON
BOTH SIDES OF THE AKPENN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS HAVING THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE STRENGTH...BEFORE YET ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS
SOUTHERLY LOW ENTERS THE GULF THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  THE GFS
HAS THIS LOW DEEPENING TO 966 MB SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SEEMS A BIT AMBITIOUS AT THIS POINT.  THESE TWO LOWS NEXT
WEEK ARE GOING TO BE A FUNCTION OF THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES ROLLING ACROSS THE TOP
OF THAT RIDGE...AS PER HPC GUIDANCE THE 06Z ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR DAYS 6
AND 7 SHOWS HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA AREA PROVIDING
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PERIOD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 150
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

SDM SEP 06