Gale Warning 68, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 201302
CWFAER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-210300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1005 MB LOW IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A SECOND LOW
WILL DEVELOP TO 996 MB THIS AFTERNOON JUST OFF KODIAK AND WILL MOVE
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY EARLY SAT MORNING. A THIRD LOW WILL
DEVELOP TO 980 MB JUST OFF SITKINAK SAT AFTERNOON AND WILL MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR SEWARD AT 974 MB EARLY SUN MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-210300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-210300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING N 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-210300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-210300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ130-210300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-210300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT SHIFTING TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-210300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-210300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. STRONGEST WIND S OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS ICE
FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
$$

PKZ141-210300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST FRI JAN 20 2006

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST THU JAN 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...POLAR LOW SETTLING INTO THE INTERIOR TODAY WITH COLDER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE EASTERN BERING EASTWARD TO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA. SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTH IN THE BERING SEA WILL BRING COLDER
AIR INTO THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALL THE WAY TO THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN. THIS WILL DEVELOP A TROUGH AXIS FROM THE NORTHERN COAST TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN BY FRIDAY. EXTREME EASTERN ALASKA WILL REMAIN
UNDER A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THIS SCENARIO. TWO
SEPARATE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO WORK THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE IS CURRENTLY NEAR 170W AND WILL MOVE EAST TO
NORTHEAST ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
FRIDAY. IT WILL WEAKEN WHEN IT HITS PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN BERING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTS THROUGH THE GULF SATURDAY. THIS ONE HELPS TO PULL THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. THE TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA IS PUSHED WESTWARD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING FRIDAY. THE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS
EVENTUALLY PUSHED EASTWARD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND
ANOTHER KAMCHATKA LOW WORKS TOWARD SHEMYA MONDAY.

SOUTH CENTRAL SURFACE...WEAK LOW IN WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
MORNING PRODUCING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW FROM CORDOVA TO WASILLA TO
CANTWELL AND POINTS EAST. SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING POLAR LOW
DROPPING INTO THE STATE WILL SWEEP OUT MOST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE INLAND AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE POLAR LOW MOVING
INTO THE INTERIOR...VERY COLD AIR FILTERING INTO WESTERN ALASKA AND
BERING SEA TODAY EVENTUALLY WORKING TO SOUTH CENTRAL TOMORROW. TEMPS
WILL NOT DIP TOO FAR BELOW NORMAL IN THE COPPER RIVER AS THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS WEST OF THAT AREA. OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND WILL BE
WELL 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INLAND. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL
REBOUND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW WORKS TOWARD KODIAK.
THIS LOW TO MOVE INTO THE SOUND LATE FRIDAY BRINGING MODERATE WINDS
AND PRECIPITATION TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. WITH THE PATH OF THIS
FIRST LOW...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
ANCHORAGE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A
STRONGER LOW TO MOVE IN AFTER THE FIRST EARLY SATURDAY NEAR KODIAK
AND INTO THE SOUND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS ONE IS ALONG THE SAME PATH
BUT STRONGER WINDS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ROUGHLY THE SAME AMOUNTS AS
THE FIRST ONE COMING THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...LOW TO WEAKEN AND
HANG OUT IN THE SOUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY CAUSING SHOWERS TO END FROM THE WEST
STARTING MONDAY.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE SURFACE...LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN
CHAIN ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA CREATING TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THEN CHAIN AND BERING SEA. AS A
RESULT...EASTER TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE RATHER STRONG OVER THOSE
AREAS. IN FACT...SEEING SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW REDUCING
VISIBILITY QUITE A BIT. ANOTHER LOW TO MOVE UP TO THE CHAIN
FRIDAY...MAINTAINING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH A POLAR LOW SETTING
UP OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY AND TROUGH AXIS DIGGING IN THE EASTERN
BERING TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL FALL FAR BELOW NORMAL IN WESTERN ALASKA
TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS STARTING TONIGHT. ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10
DEGREES IN THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TO 15 TO 25 DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR.
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA IS PUSHED WEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT A GOOD GRADIENT IS MAINTAINED OVER THE EASTERN BERING TO THE
COAST. THIS PATTERN TO REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL A FRONT
PUSHES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY SHIFTING THE WHOLE
PATTERN EAST OVER TIME. WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP WITH THE LOW MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN. MOST PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW
ALONG THE CHAIN AND THE ONE COMING UP TOMORROW WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
CHAIN. EXPECT SOME MODERATE AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND RAIN TO MOST OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER
THE TROUGH DIGS IN THE EASTERN BERING...EXPECT MOST PRECIPITATION TO
BE CUT OFF OUTSIDE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN THE BERING SEA HITTING
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CHAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN PRECIP ARRIVING
WITH THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN LATE SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 138 140 150 160 165 179
         STORM 175 176
         GALE 165 170 172 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN JAN 06