Gale Warning 673, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 191201
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 991 MB LOW 100 NM EAST OF CHIGNIK WILL WEAKEN TO 1000 MB AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST TO 100 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN
INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
GULF THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
$$

PKZ120-200200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-200200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-200200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-200200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-200200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-200200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-200200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-200200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-200200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 19 2006

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
230 PM ADT MON SEP 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL. IT SEEMS THE NAM INITIALIZED THE
UPPER LEVELS A BIT BETTER OVER THE MAINLAND. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE
LOW IS HANDLED GOOD BY BOTH. 18Z NAM AND 12Z GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
PROGRESSION OF SURFACE FEATURES.

UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING WITH CLOSED LOW JUST
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AN EXITING LOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER
ISLAND. RIDGE PUSHED EAST TONIGHT OVER THE GULF AS SHORT WAVE AND JET
ROUND THE CLOSED LOW NOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS WILL PUSH
THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING. JET PUSHES TO THE PANHANDLE WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE LOW TO FILL AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY TO THE NORTHERN GULF. IT WILL BE
PUSHED INLAND AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER WAVE DIGGING SOUTH IN THE
WESTERN BERING. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT IT WILL CHANGE THE
ORIENTATION OF THE JET. THE NEW TROUGH OVER THE BERING TO MERGE WITH
THE MAINLAND LOW WITH AN AXIS NEAR 150W. RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
BERING THURSDAY AND PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS THE BERING INTO
SATURDAY. THE LOW EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE REMAINS BUT JUST PUSHED
EAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A NEW LOW MOVES PAST KAMCHATKA TO
SHEMYA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

SURFACE WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...VIGOROUS LOW JUST EAST OF DUTCH
HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE NORTH SIDE AND
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS IS PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY
IN THE AREA OF COLD ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LOW. THIS AREA
IS MODERATING QUICKLY AS THE LOW WRAPS AROUND ITSELF. LOW FILLS 8 MB
OVERNIGHT...SO EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH. GOOD AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THIS LOW. LOW IS STACKED AT THIS TIME AS
WELL AND SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY INTO THE
WESTERN GULF. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO
TUESDAY AS WELL OVER THE EASTERN BERING. HOWEVER...GOOD GRADIENT OVER
THE WATER AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY FOR
MODERATE WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT LIFTS INLAND. ANOTHER LOW
MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE WESTERN BERING TO BRING MODERATE WINDS THERE
ALONG WITH SOME PRECIPITATION. THIS LOW TO WORK EAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN BERING. THE LOW WILL MERGE WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND SOUTH CENTRAL THURSDAY. MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE BERING INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL MOVE THE LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND THE GULF EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...A LOW AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT MOVE TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

SURFACE EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...STRONG FRONT MOVING NORTH IN THE
GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL BE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT. STRONG
WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE GULF. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY RESEMBLE OUR TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN. ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE STRONG WINDS
THROUGH SOUTH TO NORTH ORIENTED GAPS. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN
THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE THE LOW AND FRONT BEGIN TO WEAKEN TUESDAY
EVENING AND MOVES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WILL SEE THEN AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INLAND AS A RESULT. AN
AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE
GULF THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG LOW TO MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
GULF AND HEAD TOWARD THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RESIDUAL LOW
PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF INTO SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MAY ALSO SEE SOME
MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEST TO EAST GAPS AS A RESULT AT THIS
TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 185
MARINE...STORM 170 172
         GALE 138 150 155 160 165 171 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN SEP 06