Gale Warning 658, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 140650 AAA
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1045 PM ADT WED SEP 13 2006

UPDATED ZONES 155 160 170 171 AND 180.

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-141400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 988 MB LOW 600 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR
BETHEL THURSDAY NIGHT AS 990 MB. A 1005 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 200 NM
SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR THURSDAY NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ150-141400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT WED SEP 13 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-141400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
1045 PM ADT WED SEP 13 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-141400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
1045 PM ADT WED SEP 13 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-141400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT WED SEP 13 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAY AND PASSES. SEAS 
8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-141400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
1045 PM ADT WED SEP 13 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT . SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-141400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
1045 PM ADT WED SEP 13 2006

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-141400-
UNALASKA BAY
1045 PM ADT WED SEP 13 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-141400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT WED SEP 13 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-141400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT WED SEP 13 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-141400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT WED SEP 13 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-141400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT WED SEP 13 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-141400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT WED SEP 13 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT WED SEP 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...

ANALYSIS...THE TRANSITION BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERNS CONTINUES AS
THE ARCTIC VORTEX BELOW THE POLE THAT HAS GRAVITATED BETWEEN SIBERIA AND THE
NORTH COAST OF ALASKA GIVES WAY TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERLIES AND AN OMEGA
PATTERN OVER ALASKA AND THE YUKON.  A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING
FROM THE ARCTIC OCEAN SOUTH TO THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
MAINLAND ALASKA.  AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN RUSSIA AND ANOTHER OVER WESTERN
CANADA ROUND OUT THE OMEGA PATTERN.

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS A TREND TOWARDS A DRIER END OF THE WEEK FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE TURNAGAIN ARM AREA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.

MODEL ANALYSIS...IN THE SHORT TERM THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH MOVING
THE 985MB LOW NOW SITUATED WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS NORTH TO THE BRISTOL BAY
AREA BY THURSDAY MIDDAY.  AFTER THIS POINT THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE VERY POOR RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THUS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST
AS THE NORTHERN GULF LOW STARTS TO IMPACT SOUTHCENTRAL WEATHER.  THE GFS BIAS
OF UNDERDOING THE NORTH GULF COAST RIDGE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING CONFINDED TO KODIAK ISLAND AND
THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HIGH WINDS IN THE TYPICAL SOUTHEAST
FLOW SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS.

SHORT TERM FORECAST...ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY ON TAP FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
 FOG IS BEING REPORTED IN A FEW LOCALES ON THE KENAI PENINSULA AND IN A BROAD
REGION CENTERED AROUND THE Y-K DELTA AS THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS ALLOW
FOR NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THE DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND THIS MORNING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN CLIMB TO THE LOWER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA.  OUT WEST FOG AND STRATUS
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THE PRIBLOFS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN WEST
COAST.  SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AKPENN WILL GIVE WAY TO A
RAIN BY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW.

EXTENDED FORECAST...NOT HAVING MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THE MODELS...HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION GIVEN ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE...DESPITE ITS POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE LOW WILL BRING BACK CLOUDS AND WIND THIS WEEKEND
FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA.  OUT WEST THE NAM AND GFS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON
A LOW RUNNING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS LATER THIS WEEKEND AND HAVE NUDGED THE
FORECAST A LITTLE THAT WAY ACKNOWLEDGING THE STARK NWP DEVIATION FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY 141
MARINE...GALE 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

SDM 06