Gale Warning 601, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 010536 AAA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
940 PM ADT THU AUG 31 2006

UPDATED ZONE 120 121 125 129 140

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 991 MB LOW 90 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 100 NM SOUTH
OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 1001 MB FRI AFTERNOON AND THEN DRIFT TO 90 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 1007 MB SAT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-011400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
940 PM ADT THU AUG 31 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-011400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT THU AUG 31 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 

$$

PKZ125-011400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
940 PM ADT THU AUG 31 2006

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-011400-
PASSAGE CANAL
940 PM ADT THU AUG 31 2006

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 20. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-011400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT THU AUG 31 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-011400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT THU AUG 31 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT DECREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-011400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT THU AUG 31 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT
OF BAYS AND PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
DECREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-011400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
940 PM ADT THU AUG 31 2006

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-011400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT THU AUG 31 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 011159
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 1 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-020200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 996 MB LOW 100 NM EAST OF KODIAK WEAKENS TO 1007 MB SAT NIGHT AS IT
MOVES TO 275 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND.
$$

PKZ120-020200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 1 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT EXCEPT E 25 KT ALONG THE COAST EAST OF CAPE
CLEARE BY THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT E 25 KT ALONG THE COAST EAST OF CAPE
CLEARE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-020200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 1 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-020200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 1 2006

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-020200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 1 2006

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-020200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 1 2006

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-020200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 1 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-020200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 1 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-020200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 1 2006

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-020200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 1 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT THU AUG 31 2006

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE CONTINUES TO BRING WET WEATHER FROM THE ALASKA RANGE
EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL EDGE EASTWARD
INTO THE TROUGH BY WEEKEND. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVES WILL PROPAGATE DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. BY THIS WEEKEND THIS RIDGE WILL DISPLACE THE TROUGH
OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR THE TROUGH FORMING A CUT OFF LOW IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA...ALASKA PENINSULA...AN EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL
BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO PARTS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND THEN THEY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY.

GFS AND NAM MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. ONLY BIG DIFFERENCE
IS THE HANDLING OF THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE LOW WILL BE A
BROAD COMPLEX LOW. THE NAM TRIES TO RESOLVE THE INDIVIDUAL LOWS WHILE
THE GFS SMOOTHS THEM OUT. SUBTLETIES IN THESE DIFFERENCES MAY AFFECT
KODIAK MINIMALLY BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE
FORECAST NO MATTER WHICH ONE IS USED. THAT BEING SAID THE GFS WAS THE
MAIN MODEL USED FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECASTS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AUG 06