Gale Warning 568, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT THU AUG 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...

GFS AND NAM REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT BEYOND 48 HOURS. BOTH MODELS AGREE
TO TAKE 996 MB LOW ABOUT 50 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY TO KODIAK ISLAND BY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS THEN RAPIDLY WEAKENS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WHILE THE NAM MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY.
THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
WHILE THE NAM ONLY RECOGNIZES BROAD TROFINESS. THE NAM WAS PREFERRED
THROUGH 48 HOURS...00Z SAT...DUE TO ITS BETTER RECOGNITION OF
TERRAIN. THE GFS WAS PREFERRED BEYOND 48 HOURS...06Z SAT THROUGH 12Z
MON...FOR ITS BETTER RECOGNITION OF THE DOMINANT LOW CENTER.

GENERAL PATTERN FOR MAINLAND ALASKA IS TYPICAL OF EARLY AUGUST.
MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW...MILD TEMPERATURES...AND SUCCESSIVE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN. POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MEANWHILE BROAD WESTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE BERING
SEA BY FRI MORNING. A 1006 MB LOW WILL BE 330 NM SOUTH OF ADAK FRI
NIGHT. STRATUS AND LOW FOG WILL THICKEN OVER THE BERING. CHANCE OF
RAIN ALONG THE ALEUTIANS THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOW SKIRTS JUST SOUTH OF
THE CHAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 138 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB AUG 06