Gale Warning 540, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 211126
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT FRI JUL 21 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-220200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 999 MB LOW 275 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL DISSIPATE SAT MORNING.
A 994 MB LOW 300 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 75 NM NORTH OF
SHEMYA SAT. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO 125 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR AND
STRENGTHEN TO 989 MB BY SUNDAY MORNING. 

$$

PKZ150-220200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT FRI JUL 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-220200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT FRI JUL 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-220200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT FRI JUL 21 2006

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-220200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT FRI JUL 21 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-220200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT FRI JUL 21 2006

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-220200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT FRI JUL 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-220200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT FRI JUL 21 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-220200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT FRI JUL 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-220200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT FRI JUL 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-220200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT FRI JUL 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-220200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT FRI JUL 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-220200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT FRI JUL 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
240 PM ADT THU JUL 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...

NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SPINNING SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WITH
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING ALONG KODIAK ISLAND AND THE NORTH GULF
COAST. THIS IS BRINGING RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS TO COASTAL
LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO TREND DOWNWARD AS FRONT BEGINS
TO SHEAR APART. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND INTO THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE. ONE OF THE
FORECAST PROBLEMS OF THE DAY IS IDENTIFYING WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL MAKE IT INLAND TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS. RADAR
SHOWS SOME ECHOES MAKING IT ACROSS THE COASTAL LAND...BUT DO TO
DRY CONDITIONS...AS PER 12Z SOUNDINGS...NOT MUCH OF THIS IS
REACHING THE GROUND AND WHERE IT IS REACHING THE GROUND IT IS
VERY LIGHT. WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND STABILITY INDICES ARE MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION AND MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL.
THEREFORE WILL STICK WITH FORECAST OF ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND
REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHCENTRAL. AT 21Z THERE IS
INITIAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM/KILBUCK/AHKLUN MOUNTAINS. WITH FULL SUN IN THIS AREA AND
SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE THIS MAY BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE MID LEVEL CAP CAN BE BROKEN THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING IS PROVIDING FAIRLY CALM CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS THE USUAL STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BERING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE EASTERN BERING WHERE THERE IS A GOOD
NORTHERLY JET BETWEEN RIDGE AND GULF LOW. AS RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD
TONIGHT MUCH OF THIS WILL FILL IN BRINGING CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE
NORTHERN AKPENN/EASTERN ALEUTIANS/WESTERN MAINLAND COAST. A FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW NORTHWEST OF WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BRINGING RAIN AND SMALL CRAFT
WINDS. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD AS LOW DRIFTS
TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

GFS/NAM/UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING FAIR VERIFICATION WITH MAJOR
SYNOPTIC FEATURES AT THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...NAM SOLUTION DIVERGES
WIDELY STARTING AT ABOUT 48 HOURS. DUE TO RECENT INCONSISTENCY AND
BAD PERFORMANCE OF NAM AS WELL AS FAIR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF
GFS WILL GO WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. THERE WAS ALSO A NOTABLE
DIFFERENCE IN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
FRONT. BASED ON QUICKSCAT AND THE FEW LAND BASED OBS OUT THERE
GFS IS VERIFYING BETTER WITH WINDS.

LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND
SLOWLY WEAKEN. ONSHORE FLOW/WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION. GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL
TIGHTEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY PRODUCING THE USUAL GAP WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL. THE RIDGE OUT WEST WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS
UPPER LOW OVER FAR WESTERN BERING SLIDES EASTWARD AND SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND IT MOVE INTO RIDGE. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE
AKPENN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND SPREADING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND KODIAK ISLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 138 150 155 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JUL 06