Gale Warning 538, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 192305
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT WED JUL 19 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-201400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 985 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WEAKENS TO 1001 MB AS IT MOVES 
TO 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING WILL REACH THE EASTERN BERING FRI AFTERNOON. A 
WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW NEAR KAMCHATKA AFFECTS THE
EXTREME WESTERN BERING THU AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-201400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT WED JUL 19 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-201400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT WED JUL 19 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-201400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT WED JUL 19 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-201400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT WED JUL 19 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-201400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT WED JUL 19 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-201400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT WED JUL 19 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-201400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT WED JUL 19 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-201400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT WED JUL 19 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-201400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT WED JUL 19 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-201400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT WED JUL 19 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-201400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT WED JUL 19 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-201400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT WED JUL 19 2006

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT TUE JUL 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN HAS BEGUN SHIFTING EASTWARD AS DISCUSSED
YESTERDAY MORNING.  ALREADY THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST UNTIL IT
RESIDES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS
LOW MOVES WESTWARD IT GAINS SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH
AND WILL STRENGTHEN BEFORE BECOMING BAROTROPIC IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
FOLLOWING THIS LOW RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND
PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL BERING.  THIS STRONG RIDGE WILL AID IN
BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE LOW AND PREVENT IT FROM DYING OUT TOO
QUICKLY.

OUT WEST...AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS.  A SECONDARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
OLD LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN INTO
BRISTOL BAY.  THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND SLOWLY TAPER
OFF.  THE WINDS ALONG THE AKPEN HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE GULF AND THE
GRADIENT MOVES EASTWARD.

IN THE EAST...CONDITIONS LOOK PRETTY NICE TODAY FOR MOST OF THE
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION.  GENERAL CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING SHOULD DECREASE
BY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE MAINLAND.  KODIAK
WILL EXPERIENCE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE
REGION BUT THIS IS NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THEM.

MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY UNTIL THE 50
HOUR POINT.  AT THAT HOUR THE WRF MOVES THE LOW IN THE GULF FURTHER
TO THE EAST WHILE THE GFS THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF HOLD THE LOW BACK
TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND.  GFS IS PREFERABLE AT THAT HOUR AS IT HAS BEEN
PERFORMING BEST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SEEMS TO BE IN LINE WITH
MOST OF THE MODELS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 130 132 138 150 155 160 399
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF JUL 06