Gale Warning 499, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 271157
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 27 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-280200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1020 MB LOW 150 NM WEST OF SITKA WILL MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE TUE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GULF WED.
$$

PKZ120-280200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 27 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-280200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 27 2006

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-280200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 27 2006

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-280200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 27 2006

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-280200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 27 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-280200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 27 2006


.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-280200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 27 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-280200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 27 2006

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-280200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 27 2006

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT MON JUN 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...

12Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALAKSA WITH A STRONG
VORTMAX OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF SPINNING UP INTO A SEPERATE
LOW WITH A DEFORMATION BAND THAT STRETCHES SW ALL THE WAY INTO THE SUBTROPICS. ANOTHER
COMPLEX UPPER LOW SYSTEM IS SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WHILE AT THE SURFACE A
DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS DEPICTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE WV
IMAGERY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ROUGHLY ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS THAT
RUNS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE IN THE WEST...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLEARING SKIES BROUGHT FOG TO LOCATIONS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND AROUND BRISTOL
BAY.

IN THE SHORT-TERM...EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
REMAINS MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND A SHORTWAVE ROTATES
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE YUKON LATER IN THE DAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MINIMAL THOUGH...AS THE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE DEEP CONVECTION. LOOK FOR
DRIER WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA AS AN ADVANCING RIDGE SHOULD CAP MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES ONSHORE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER IT PACKS LITTLE PUNCH AT THIS POINT AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL ZONES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND HAS SERVED AS THE MAJOR
MOISTURE SOURCE FOR THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO
THE PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHCENTRAL TO BEGIN DRYING OUT. THE UPPER RIDGE
ALIGNS ITSELF FROM SW/NE ALONG THE AXIS OF THE AK PEN ON WEDNESDAY AND WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW SETS UP TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT A DRIER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ALEUTIANS...WHERE ANOTHER LOW/FRONTAL COMPLEX
BRINGS RAIN AND GALES TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CHAIN WEDNESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...A DRIER PATTERN THAN INDICATED YESTERDAY FOR MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AS
INDICATED BY THE GFS AS WELL AS THE ECMWF MODELS. RIDGING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA KEEPS
THINGS DRY FOR THE MAINLAND AS THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND
DROPS INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY THE WEEKEND...LEAVING MUCH OF THE MAINLAND FORECAST AREA
IN THE CLEAR. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN
ALASKA AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BRUSH THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

WOOD JUN 06