Gale Warning 483, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT THU JUN 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE OR NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA.

THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN GENERALLY BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY. THE MAIN PROBLEM HAS BEEN THE HANDLING OF THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA.  IT IS DEEPER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT AND A LITTLE
FASTER.  BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT THE TRACK WILL BE INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA BY SATURDAY. WENT WITH GFS BUT BUMPED THE WINDS UP SOME
MAINLY OVER THE MARINE AREAS AROUND KODIAK AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HOLDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE WEEKEND.
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL PUSH ITS FRONT INTO THE NORTH
GULF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS AND RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES IN MOST COASTAL AREAS IN THE SOUTHWEST. SOME MOISTURE
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE INTERIOR ZONES BUT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS IN MOST ZONES
WILL MINIMIZE ANY THREAT OF FIRE DANGER.

OUT WEST AS THE LOW PROGRESS INTO THE EASTER BERING SEA AREAS FROM
BRISTOL BAY AND ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND GRADUALLY COMING DOWN. MOST OF THE
ALEUTIANS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 150 155 160 165.
         STORMS 130 132 138 140.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KB JUN 06